Since the advent of the omicron phase of the COVID pandemic, new variants of SARS-CoV-2 have evolved into much more infectious versions without losing their inherent pathogenicity or virulence. They have also been shown to be able to evade the immunity provided by current mRNA COVID vaccines. Efficacy against symptomatic infections, even after revaccination, is short-lived and fleeting.
One of the clearest examples of this process, South Africa, is currently experiencing a fifth wave of COVID infections, with new BA.4 and BA.5 variants dominating. A recent population-based study of COVID seroprevalence (which looks at blood data from large populations rather than individuals) found that 97 percent of the population had significant antibodies, either from vaccination or previous infection. But the presence of these antibodies did not create a barrier to new infections.
It is understood that no combination of vaccination and prior infection can end the pandemic. The “herd immunity” that boosting antibody levels will reduce the population vulnerable to SARS-CoV-2 to such a low level that the virus will die out due to lack of hosts is a myth.
In the face of statements by government officials and mainstream media that COVID-19 has become endemic, it would be more correct to say that the pandemic has become permanent.
There is growing evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is proving to be a well-adapted pathogen. It adapts to population immunity while maintaining its inherent virulence. The politically convenient idea that the coronavirus evolves into weaker versions, endlessly propagated by the corporate press, has turned out to be wrong.
Researchers examined the estimated prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in South Africa in March 2022. The same researchers recently stated at a press conference: “The infection pressure of the Omicron variant was extremely high for such a significant increase in prevalence during this period. relatively mature stage of the epidemic. It is hardly possible to imagine much higher prevalence values.”
South Africa has been the hardest hit country on the African continent with more than 101,000 deaths from COVID-19. However, a recent World Health Organization study of excess deaths from January 2020 to December 2021 found that excess deaths in South Africa exceeded 239,000.
Since the new year, another 10,000 deaths from COVID have been reported, which means the number of excess deaths is likely to be over a quarter of a million for this country of nearly 60 million people. The per capita COVID death toll in South Africa is therefore one in 240, higher even in the United States, where the rate is one in 330.
The nature of the evolution of these options is critical to understanding the course of a pandemic in its third year.
The new study, uploaded to the bioRxiv (biology preprint) server at the University of Tokyo’s Sato lab, has shown that the latest Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants, as well as variants related to BA.2, have acquired mutations. at amino acid residue L452 of the virus spike protein were more infectious than the original BA.2 variant.
In addition, antibodies induced by prior infection with BA.1 and BA.2 are less effective against the BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants. Immunity based on recent prior infection with BA.1 and BA.2 offers little protection against later variants.
In animal studies with hamsters, variants BA.2.12.1, BA.4, and BA.5 appear to replicate more efficiently in lung cells and bind more strongly to these cells. In addition, when these animals were sacrificed and their lungs examined under a microscope, pathological lesions and inflammation of the vascular and lung tissue were higher in the new variants than in the original BA .2.
The authors write: “The relatively more severe lung damage in BA.4/5-infected hamsters than in BA.2-infected hamsters is due to more efficient distribution of BA.4/5 than BA.2. in infected lungs. Taken together, these observations suggest that BA.4/5 is more pathogenic than BA.2 in the hamster model.”
They warn: “A simplistic hypothesis without strong evidence implies that SARS-CoV-2 will evolve to mitigate its pathogenicity. However, we refute this view with at least three observations. First, the Delta variant showed relatively higher pathogenicity than the generic virus in an animal model. Clinical studies also provide evidence showing a higher virulence of the delta variant than other earlier variants, including the alpha variant. Second, although the Omicron BA.1 variant is less pathogenic than the Delta variant, the Omicron BA.2 variant has acquired the potential to exhibit higher pathogenicity than the Omicron BA.1 variant. Third, we demonstrate here that Omicron BA.4/5 is more potentially pathogenic than Omicron BA.2. Thus, our observations strongly suggest that SARS-CoV-2 does not necessarily evolve to reduce its pathogenicity.”
It is clear that SARS-CoV-2 is not evolving towards a relatively harmless seasonal flu, as advocates of “endemicity” claim. New variants are not inferior to their predecessors or inferior to them in terms of the degree of harm to the human body.
These laboratory tests are critical. But real clinical data provide additional insight into the complexity of the ever-changing dynamics between viruses and the populations that serve as their hosts.
This week The newspaper “New York Timesreleased a major report highlighting that the Omicron wave was much more deadly to older people than the Delta wave. As shown in Figure 2 below, the mortality rate for people aged 65 and over was 163 percent higher during the Omicron wave than during the Delta wave, despite increased vaccination of the elderly.
The current waves of BA.2 and BA.2.12.1 sweeping the United States have resulted in an increase in hospital admissions despite a higher prevalence of recalls among the elderly compared to the general population. This was reported by Dr. Sharon Inoue, geriatrician and professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School. once“I think we will see an increase in mortality. This will become increasingly risky for older people as their immune systems weaken.”
Earlier in May, the White House acknowledged that its fall-winter simulations predicted 100 million people could be infected, far more than was reported in the three months of the AD wave. She also acknowledged the possibility of a huge increase in the number of deaths.
In this regard, the elderly, who often have high comorbidities, as well as those with weakened immune systems, face a significant threat that Democrats and Republicans have no response to. In the first three months of 2022, 40% of COVID deaths were among those who were vaccinated. As expected, officials from the White House coronavirus task force will resort to the usual “we couldn’t have predicted things would get this bad,” as they have repeatedly done during their press conferences. Also, as Inoue so aptly put it, “Now it seems like everything depends on the person now. It’s not easy for you, I agree.
With the complete disappearance of mask-wearing and the end of any form of lockdown or even major restrictions, with no meaningful evidence to substantiate any risk assessment, the population is facing an endless onslaught as society overcomes a blind pandemic. Masses of people will be exposed to one or two COVID infections each year, with the attendant risk of prolonged COVID and significant deterioration in their overall health.
South Africa’s recent experience with BA.4/5 confirms that only a global eradication strategy can end this permanent pandemic.
(Article first published in English on June 3, 2022)
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