Oh, electoral arithmetic does not work in Macron’s favor – Economic Policy

So, we are dealing with this first stage, with the first round of the presidential elections in France, in which two candidates will be nominated. The Tefal campaign, to use the image of Brice Teinturier, boss of the Ifop polling institute: “The French have everything slipping, there are no strong and structuring elements.” A Tefal campaign, but one that can still leave nasty grease stains.

We have known since Brexit or the election of Donald Trump what polls are worth. We have known this for a long time, even in France, where we still remember the shock of the Socialist candidate Lionel Jospin’s elimination in the first round in the 2002 elections of 200,000 votes of Jean-Marie Le Pen. Thus, the National Front received the right to face Jacques Chirac in the second round.

Admittedly, Lionel Jospin, the totemized “erudite hamster” among Scouts, didn’t really have the charisma to topple the mob. This is what he instilled in a worker who fears losing his job: “We still cannot nationalize every enterprise as soon as there is a layoff.” Looping on TVs and guaranteed selective effect. But this lack of emotional intelligence (the same criticism as Macron’s, by the way) does not explain everything. This defeat was also possible due to the number of abstentions and the dispersion of the left (at least 8 left candidates ran in the elections, and only 16).

Today, however, a configuration similar to the one in 2002 is being formed. OpinionWay-Kéa Partners’ latest barometer for Les Echos and Radio Classique shows a third of voters are still not sure if they will go to the polls on Sunday. And the poll reveals an utterly fragmented political landscape. Macron remains in the lead with 26% of intent, followed by Marine Le Pen with 22%, Jean-Luc Mélenchon with 17% and Eric Zemmour with 9%. Traditional parties are curtailed. Valerie Pecresse, LR, goes head to head with Eric Zemmour, Yannick Jadot l’Ecolo only gets 5% and socialist Anne Hidalgo 2%! PS even lags behind PC as Fabien Roussel is credited with 2.5%.

One would think that the war in Ukraine, the “flag effect” would support the outgoing president, but public opinion polls do not put the war in Ukraine in the significant attention of the French population. Voters prioritize purchasing power, followed by welfare, security, and immigration. The war in Ukraine ranks only 12th, just behind concerns about the size of the public debt.

If, as everything indicates, in the second round Marine Le Pen had to face Emmanuel Macron, nothing suggests that the latter will easily win. Macron is representing the system, and many French voters no longer want it, and the trend is getting stronger week after week.

Let’s calculate the intentions to vote for the anti-systems: Le Pen (23%), Zemmour (9%), a good half of the melanchonist electorate (more than half of his voters would vote for Marine Le Pen), the communist Jean Roussel (from 2 to 3%), aggressive Béarnet, Resiston founder Jean Lassalle (3%), far-leftists Nathalie Artaud and Philippe Putou (1% each), sovereignist Dupont Haignan (from 1 to 2%). …we have potentially more than 50% of voters ready to fight macronism! Question: how far?

Let’s cross our fingers and light a candle to Saint Rita, the patroness of difficult deeds.

We have known since Brexit or the election of Donald Trump what polls are worth. We have known this for a long time, even in France, where we still remember the shock of the Socialist candidate Lionel Jospin’s elimination in the first round in the 2002 elections of 200,000 votes of Jean-Marie Le Pen. Thus, the National Front got the right to fight Jacques Chirac in the second round. Of course, Lionel Jospin, whom the scouts called the totem of the “erudite hamster”, actually lacked the charisma to overthrow the crowd. This is what he instilled in a worker who fears losing his job: “We still cannot nationalize every enterprise as soon as there is a layoff.” Looping on TVs and guaranteed selective effect. But this lack of emotional intelligence (the same criticism as Macron’s, by the way) does not explain everything. This rout was also aided by the number of abstentions and the dispersal of the left (at least 8 left-wing candidates stood in the elections, and only 16), but a configuration is emerging similar to that of 2002 today. OpinionWay-Kéa Partners’ latest barometer for Les Echos and Radio Classique shows a third of voters are still not sure if they will go to the polls on Sunday. And the poll reveals an utterly fragmented political landscape. Macron remains in the lead with 26% of intent, followed by Marine Le Pen with 22%, Jean-Luc Mélenchon with 17% and Eric Zemmour with 9%. Traditional parties are curtailed. Valerie Pecresse, LR, goes head to head with Eric Zemmour, Yannick Jadot l’Ecolo only gets 5% and socialist Anne Hidalgo 2%! The PS would even lag behind the PC, as Fabien Roussel is credited with 2.5%. One would think that the war in Ukraine, the “flag effect”, would support the outgoing president, but the polls do not put the war in Ukraine in the main focus of the French population. Voters prioritize purchasing power, followed by welfare, security, and immigration. The war in Ukraine ranks only 12th, just behind concerns about the height of the public debt. If, as everything points out, the second round was to pit Marine Le Pen against Emmanuel Macron, nothing suggests that the latter will win easily. Macron represents the system and many French voters don’t want it anymore, a trend that is growing week by week, a good half of the melenchonist electorate (more than half of his voters would have voted for Marine Le Pen), the communist Jean Roussel (between 2 and 3%), the aggressive Béarnet, the founder of Résistons Jean Lassalle (3%), the far left Natalie Artaud and Philippe Putou (1% each), the sovereignist Dupont Aignan (from 1 to 2%). …we have potentially more than 50% of voters ready to fight macronism! Question: how far? Let’s cross our fingers and light a candle to Saint Rita, the patroness of difficult deeds.

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